Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science by Clayton, Aubrey
Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science by Clayton, Aubrey

Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not...
$38.40 AUD
$38.40 AUD
SKU: 9780231199957
Product Type: Books
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Author: Aubrey Clayton
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Subtotal: $38.40
Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science by Clayton, Aubrey

Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

$38.40
Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science by Clayton, Aubrey

Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

$38.40
Author: Aubrey Clayton
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Description

There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.


Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.


Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it.



Author: Aubrey Clayton
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Published: 11/01/2022
Pages: 368
Binding Type: Paperback
Weight: 1.10lbs
Size: 9.10h x 6.10w x 1.00d
ISBN: 9780231199957

About the Author
Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics at the Harvard Extension School. He holds a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in the New York Times, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe.
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