Get Discount 5% Off
Subscribe to our newsletters now and stay up-to-date with new arrivals, updates and deals.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make...
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Please hurry! Only 189 left in stock
Couldn't load pickup availability
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster--updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling
One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year
"Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility. With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
Pages: 576
Binding Type: Paperback
Weight: 1.15lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d
ISBN: 9780143125082
Review Citation(s):
New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
About the Author
Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. He writes the Substack "Silver Bulletin."
One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year
"Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility. With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
Pages: 576
Binding Type: Paperback
Weight: 1.15lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d
ISBN: 9780143125082
Review Citation(s):
New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
About the Author
Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. He writes the Substack "Silver Bulletin."
Returns Policy
You may return most new, unopened items within 30 days of delivery for a full refund. We'll also pay the return shipping costs if the return is a result of our error (you received an incorrect or defective item, etc.).
You should expect to receive your refund within four weeks of giving your package to the return shipper, however, in many cases you will receive a refund more quickly. This time period includes the transit time for us to receive your return from the shipper (5 to 10 business days), the time it takes us to process your return once we receive it (3 to 5 business days), and the time it takes your bank to process our refund request (5 to 10 business days).
If you need to return an item, simply login to your account, view the order using the "Complete Orders" link under the My Account menu and click the Return Item(s) button. We'll notify you via e-mail of your refund once we've received and processed the returned item.
Shipping
We can ship to virtually any address in the world. Note that there are restrictions on some products, and some products cannot be shipped to international destinations.
When you place an order, we will estimate shipping and delivery dates for you based on the availability of your items and the shipping options you choose. Depending on the shipping provider you choose, shipping date estimates may appear on the shipping quotes page.
Please also note that the shipping rates for many items we sell are weight-based. The weight of any such item can be found on its detail page. To reflect the policies of the shipping companies we use, all weights will be rounded up to the next full pound.
Related Products
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Recently Viewed Products
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
Example product title
- $30.54 AUD
- $30.54 AUD
- Unit price
- per
- Choosing a selection results in a full page refresh.