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What Are the Odds?: A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World
From bar bets to Nobel Prizes, viral outbreaks to lottery wins, how statistics shapes our choices, reveals...
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From bar bets to Nobel Prizes, viral outbreaks to lottery wins, how statistics shapes our choices, reveals hidden truths, and guides us toward certainty in uncertain times.
We live in an uncertain world. Morning commutes, natural disasters, global pandemics--our lives are riddled with events whose outcomes we can never know with certainty. In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell reveals how statistical thinking empowers us to navigate this uncertainty with clarity and confidence. Whether weighing the benefits of different medications or deciding if home insurance is worth the steep cost, Prell shows that just as important as asking what the data says is asking how reliable it is. Describing the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking, he teaches us how to extract meaningful information from raw data, and crucially, to recognize data that's been cherry-picked, fabricated, or is simply wrong. As we ask if survey responses are truthful, estimate the number of deaths from the Covid pandemic, and plan for retirement, we develop a skill set to test and update our assumptions, to make more accurate forecasts, and above all, to assess the certainty of our conclusions. Through unforgettable stories of statistical ingenuity, Prell demonstrates that the underlying math can be intuitive and even fun. And as he turns us all into statisticians, he reminds us that statistics is about more than manipulating data--it's about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity.Author: Mark Prell
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Published: 04/14/2026
Pages: 496
Binding Type: Hardcover
Weight: 1.95lbs
Size: 9.40h x 6.30w x 1.70d
ISBN: 9780674296367
About the Author
Prell, Mark: - Mark Prell has authored or coauthored academic articles, book chapters, and government studies in economics, statistical methodology, and data quality. Prior to retirement, he was a senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture. He has served as Co-Chair of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, which advises US statistical agencies, and taught economics and statistics at Johns Hopkins University.
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